I watched the first four innings of today’s Diamondbacks-Dodgers spring training game and was mildly pleased with what I saw. (What I heard on the other hand was a lot of Steve Lyons….Vin you can never retire) Webb didn’t pitch well but he seemed more concerned about not tipping off the Dodger hitters than finding the strikezone. Basically Furcal and Hudson showed what they can do at the top of a lineup: walk, hit and run, and steal a base. This is of course pointless because it was Andre Ethier and not Manny Ramirez hitting 3rd, and I guarantee things like that hit and run won’t happen if Manny is hitting there. Still it’s nice to see them functioning as a 1-2 pair even though as I mentioned before Russell Martin should be hitting second. Anyway, Loney had a two run single and Blake hit a ball out, then I stopped watching
Kuroda showed none of Webb’s concerns as he aggressively hit his spots and K’d a number of Diamondbacks. Was this wise? Well if you’re not tipping your pitches and you throw your best stuff, I don’t see how it hurts anymore.
Juan “0 for 3” Pierre had a good defensive play…..which just goes to show if you’re willing to crash into walls in spring training, well you’re going to be upset about a lack of playing time during the regular season. For the spring Pierre is hitting around .125.
Manny debuts Thursday against Korea. No biggie really….if he gets fooled by some exotic Korean pitcher, I’m not worried, and if he takes said pitcher deep, well no real reason to get excited. Quite frankly he should focus on bunting and legging it out ala Major League, because I’m pretty sure that’s the only thing he can’t do offensively.
Cause the Dutch have become a world power yet again! Somehow a lineup featuring David Ortiz, Hanley Ramirez, Robinson Cano, Miguel Tejada, and Jose Reyes was shut down by well, basically a Single A team at best. Looking at the box score, it’s obvious that the Dutch took advantage when they could getting 7 baserunners to the D.R.’s 14, but hitting them in when it counted. I’m sure Amsterdam will be rocking tonight!
Really this is probably a good thing for the World Baseball Classic because it shows that teams we all thought would suck (like the Netherlands) turn out to be good, so next time around every single major leaguer with any pride in the Dominican Republic will play for them, thus increasing the star power.
Finally someone has stepped forward and taken responsibility for the Diamondbacks epic collapse last season. Dan Haren? No. Brandon Webb? No. Hitting coach who thinks it's acceptable to have 5 starters strikeout 100+ times? No. Manager Bob Melvin? No.
Look....part of me admires the guy for stepping forward and saying I'm responsible and it sounds like he's had his personal struggles and come out stronger for it.
But then the part of my brain that's not a stranger to reason steps forward and says that unless Rauch engaged in a Iago-like series of schemes to make Webb and Haren fade hard down the stretch and he personally arranged the Manny Ramirez deal, he's not responsible.
HARD FACT: Arizona started 19-7 and finished the season 63-73. They played like the '27 Yankees for the better part of a month and then became the Kansas City Royals, and they did virtually all of it without Joe Rauch's help.
So Rauch....good to hear you got your life in order, but give the blue some credit.
The one sacreligious thing about me as a Dodger fan is that I don't do Dodger Dogs. I've never been a hot dog guy, always been a chicken fingers or pizza at the ballpark kind of guy.
My father however loves Dodger Dogs and has some issues with Camelback Ranch not having Dodger Dogs. Instead they have Hoffy Hot Dogs which sounds like a Padres thing, so in honor of my dad I've dedicated this post to saying that Hoffy Hot Dogs suck and Camelback needs its Dodger Dogs!
So Jason Schmidt made his spring debut today vs. the Rangers. Could have gone better but I wasn’t overly concerned. He gave up a 3 run homer to Taylor Teagarden (which is either the best baseball name or the worst) but from what I can gather Teagarden can hit for power. I really don’t know what to think on this one because I wouldn’t be terribly excited if Schmidt had totally dominated either. Spring training is just that training…..although I hope for Kevin Millwood’s sake he was tinkering with some kind of pitch and that’s why he got absolutely shelled. Good to see that teammates Andruw Jones and Kevin Millwood seem to be taking the same path in their post-Braves career.
More important is who is our 5th starter going to be? As one always should do, I looked ahead at the schedule to see if the Dodgers need a 5th starter when they break camp. They need someone to start April 10 vs. Arizona, but after that they can go until April 18th vs. Colorado before they need another one and then need a consistent 5th starter. Thus far I am not particularly excited by any of the names being thrown around: Schmidt has injury problems, Vargas is a journeyman, Shawn Estes has been shelled, and Eric Milton has shown a habit of pitching in and out of trouble. I’m not really considering McDonald or Troncoso at this point because I feel they should start the season in the bullpen, and Jeff Weaver has only been talked about in a relief context at this point. My personal preference is a healthy Schmidt, I think this first start is a lot of rust coming off but he needs to start performing soon to win the 5th spot. After Schmidt I’d take Weaver or Vargas.
Personally I believe whoever does win the 5th spot will end up being replaced by McDonald in roughly June or so which is the right way to go. I’d rather have McDonald build confidence in the bigs in a relief role than have to go out and feel the pressure to perform immediately. It also helps keeping his innings down, always critical with a young pitcher.
Past the starting pitching there were two other bright points today. First Kuo pitched without pain in a B game, which is a step in the right direction. Unfortunately I think the Dodgers will always have to deal with some kind of injury issue with Kuo, not through his own fault, but because he seems to be one of these guys fated to always have injury issues. Maybe there’s something wrong with him mechanically but tinkering with an effective pitchers mechanics is a dangerous game.
Second, Xavier Paul continues to rake in spring training. To be honest I feel Paul has essentially forced the Dodgers hand as to his career future. If they envision him as a starter, then he needs to start looking for apartments in New Mexico. If however they feel he can be a bench player, well now is the time really. I don’t see him cracking the Dodgers spectacular outfield this year or for that matter next, so I’m inclined to put him in the 4th outfielder role. The roster spot he’d take would almost assuredly be Delwyn “Vincent Chase of Utility Players” Young or Jason “DL by Tax Day” Repko, but in all honesty it should be Juan Pierre’s. Paul seems to be a more complete player than Pierre, which is of course like saying The Dark Knight seems like a more complete movie than the trailer for The Happening. I could live with him taking Young or Repko’s place, but if the Dodgers are going to end up releasing Pierre, why not now instead of later?
Replacing Furcal last year with Angel Berroa was like replacing the Mona Lisa with Dogs Playing Poker......amusing in a way, but ultimately cheap and meaningless. While I don't think any reasonable person expects Furcal to get on base nearly 44% of the time like he did in his injury shortened season last year, expecting a .350 OBP sounds about right. Ultimately I think the Dodgers get the most from Furcal if he plays under 140 games or so, enough to keep him fresh but not too overexposed. Raffy is of course good for 25-40 SB which helps the Dodgers a lot, but with Manny hitting in back of him the last thing I want is him getting gunned down at second. Look for him to steal with the #2 hitter at the plate.
2. Russell Martin 2008 Stats: .285/.373/.396
This to me is so apparent it reaches the point of metaphysical certainty. Russell Martin has to be the Dodgers #2 hitter. He has the ideal skill set: hits for average, high on base percentage, good contact, does not strike out a lot, lots of speed when he gets on. All of those skills are at least somewhat wasted at any other point in the lineup. If Orlando Hudson ends up hitting here that's the biggest mistake Joe Torre has made in his Dodger career, and numbers back me up on that.
3. Manny Ramirez 2008 Stats: .396/.489/.743
Okay so I cheated and used his Dodger numbers......but look Manny is the best hitter the Dodgers have and I want to emphasize that point. Manny is not going to hit .396 again, although I remember saying in mid August "there's no way he can continue to hit nearly .400." Yeah I was wrong. Think back on it......can you remember a time Manny made an out last season? The only time I think of is the double play his first game (against the D-Backs) which of course ESPN jumped on to emphasize what a poor contributor to the team Manny is. (Yeah right) I guess the big question is what numbers do we expect, and while I do think Manny will continue to dominate the league, I'm going to be modest and say I expect somewhere around .300/.405/.580 which still makes him the most feared hitter in the division.
But what really excites me about Manny is ability to totally dominate the Diamondbacks. In his career Manny has a .610 OBP against Arizona. Granted the sample size is small (59 PA) but think about it for a sec: Arizona needs to retire Manny 29 times in a row to get him down to his career average OBP.
Andre Ethier is a great Dodger and I will always have a warm spot in my heart, which is amazing because he replaced such a solid community leader with the passive tranquility and sage like self possession of Mahatma Gandhi. Unfortunately, I get the feeling Ethier has hit his ceiling. That's not to say he's not a solid contributor, it's just to say he'll never be 2002 Shawn Green. So why hit behind Manny? Well #1 he's got more power than anyone else available, #2 on the seemingly rare occasions Manny gets out he can drive guys in, #3 I'd think twice before walking Manny to get to him and #4 maybe he hasn't ceilinged out so to speak. Plus he looks good in pink.
5. Matt Kemp 2008 Stats: .290/.340/.459
This is the most debatable spot in the lineup to me. I suppose it all really depends on which James Loney shows up, 2007 or 2008. But Kemp should do well here, he was the average and power, and while he could afford to be more patient, he does do a good job of getting on. A buddy of mine always likes to compare him to Jeff Francouer, but he's a better contact guy than Frenchy. The one thing Kemp does do is strikeout a lot.....basically as much as Russell Martin and James Loney combined, but I'm pretty sure he can trim about 20 of those off. If Kemp does what he did last year, we should be fine. If he improves to say .310/.360/.500, we'll win 96+ games.
6. James Loney 2008 Stats: .289/.338/.434
So Loney seems to be having a difficult time figuring out what kind of player he is. Is he a power guy, an average guy, or both? In 2007 he appeared to be both, slugging .538 and getting on base at a .381 clip. That said, I ultimately think of Loney as George Brett type: hits roughly 20 or so homeruns, but contends for a batting title. Frankly I'd be happier if he tried to spray the ball more. Ultimately if Cool James hits around .320 or so, he should move up to #5 or maybe even #4, but I think you start the season with him hitting #6 to get him in a groove so to speak.
#7 Orlando Hudson 2008 Stats: .305/.367/.450
I must admit I'm a little concerned about Hudson's slow spring training. He was an All Star for Arizona, but let's not forget that he was more of a glove guy until recently. That said I think he makes us a better team, he's better than DeWitt with the bat at this point, and way better than Kent at facial hair, getting along with teammates, and (I assume) "washing his truck." Why have Hudson hit #7? Well because he gets on base better than Blake and I'd rather have Hudson on for when Blake pops an occassion long ball. That said I think putting Hudson #2 (as Joe Torre has indicated he might do) would be bad....he gets on base, but has none of the power or speed Martin does.
#8 Casey Blake 2008 Stats: .251/.313/.460
By all logical reasons I should hate Casey Blake.....mainly because he made the 11 hour car ride back from San Francisco this summer unbearable. Yet I don't. Why you may ask? Well he strikes me as one of those guys who is good at getting out of the way of other more talented players. He does not bitch about hitting 8th, he tolerates MIA in the locker room, he does not mind that the L.A. Times seems to think that Iowa is like watching Deliverance. I feel he's a valuable player for our team, especially hitting here. I won't be surprised when he continues to regress and ends up on the bench in 2010, but so long as Carlos Santana doesn't turn out to be the next Ivan Rodriguez, I'm cool. So he hit 8th, and will deal with the godawful junk pitcher will throw him because Chad Billingsley is not a good hitter.
In sum:
SS Furcal C Martin LF Manny RF Ethier CF Kemp 1B Loney 2B Hudson 3B Blake Pitcher
