Replacing Furcal last year with Angel Berroa was like replacing the Mona Lisa with Dogs Playing Poker......amusing in a way, but ultimately cheap and meaningless. While I don't think any reasonable person expects Furcal to get on base nearly 44% of the time like he did in his injury shortened season last year, expecting a .350 OBP sounds about right. Ultimately I think the Dodgers get the most from Furcal if he plays under 140 games or so, enough to keep him fresh but not too overexposed. Raffy is of course good for 25-40 SB which helps the Dodgers a lot, but with Manny hitting in back of him the last thing I want is him getting gunned down at second. Look for him to steal with the #2 hitter at the plate.
2. Russell Martin 2008 Stats: .285/.373/.396
This to me is so apparent it reaches the point of metaphysical certainty. Russell Martin has to be the Dodgers #2 hitter. He has the ideal skill set: hits for average, high on base percentage, good contact, does not strike out a lot, lots of speed when he gets on. All of those skills are at least somewhat wasted at any other point in the lineup. If Orlando Hudson ends up hitting here that's the biggest mistake Joe Torre has made in his Dodger career, and numbers back me up on that.3. Manny Ramirez 2008 Stats: .396/.489/.743
Okay so I cheated and used his Dodger numbers......but look Manny is the best hitter the Dodgers have and I want to emphasize that point. Manny is not going to hit .396 again, although I remember saying in mid August "there's no way he can continue to hit nearly .400." Yeah I was wrong. Think back on it......can you remember a time Manny made an out last season? The only time I think of is the double play his first game (against the D-Backs) which of course ESPN jumped on to emphasize what a poor contributor to the team Manny is. (Yeah right) I guess the big question is what numbers do we expect, and while I do think Manny will continue to dominate the league, I'm going to be modest and say I expect somewhere around .300/.405/.580 which still makes him the most feared hitter in the division.But what really excites me about Manny is ability to totally dominate the Diamondbacks. In his career Manny has a .610 OBP against Arizona. Granted the sample size is small (59 PA) but think about it for a sec: Arizona needs to retire Manny 29 times in a row to get him down to his career average OBP.
4. Andre Ethier 2008 Stats: .305/.375/.510, 8 Restaurants reviewed
Andre Ethier is a great Dodger and I will always have a warm spot in my heart, which is amazing because he replaced such a solid community leader with the passive tranquility and sage like self possession of Mahatma Gandhi. Unfortunately, I get the feeling Ethier has hit his ceiling. That's not to say he's not a solid contributor, it's just to say he'll never be 2002 Shawn Green. So why hit behind Manny? Well #1 he's got more power than anyone else available, #2 on the seemingly rare occasions Manny gets out he can drive guys in, #3 I'd think twice before walking Manny to get to him and #4 maybe he hasn't ceilinged out so to speak. Plus he looks good in pink.
5. Matt Kemp 2008 Stats: .290/.340/.459
This is the most debatable spot in the lineup to me. I suppose it all really depends on which James Loney shows up, 2007 or 2008. But Kemp should do well here, he was the average and power, and while he could afford to be more patient, he does do a good job of getting on. A buddy of mine always likes to compare him to Jeff Francouer, but he's a better contact guy than Frenchy. The one thing Kemp does do is strikeout a lot.....basically as much as Russell Martin and James Loney combined, but I'm pretty sure he can trim about 20 of those off. If Kemp does what he did last year, we should be fine. If he improves to say .310/.360/.500, we'll win 96+ games.
6. James Loney 2008 Stats: .289/.338/.434
So Loney seems to be having a difficult time figuring out what kind of player he is. Is he a power guy, an average guy, or both? In 2007 he appeared to be both, slugging .538 and getting on base at a .381 clip. That said, I ultimately think of Loney as George Brett type: hits roughly 20 or so homeruns, but contends for a batting title. Frankly I'd be happier if he tried to spray the ball more. Ultimately if Cool James hits around .320 or so, he should move up to #5 or maybe even #4, but I think you start the season with him hitting #6 to get him in a groove so to speak.
#7 Orlando Hudson 2008 Stats: .305/.367/.450
I must admit I'm a little concerned about Hudson's slow spring training. He was an All Star for Arizona, but let's not forget that he was more of a glove guy until recently. That said I think he makes us a better team, he's better than DeWitt with the bat at this point, and way better than Kent at facial hair, getting along with teammates, and (I assume) "washing his truck." Why have Hudson hit #7? Well because he gets on base better than Blake and I'd rather have Hudson on for when Blake pops an occassion long ball. That said I think putting Hudson #2 (as Joe Torre has indicated he might do) would be bad....he gets on base, but has none of the power or speed Martin does.
#8 Casey Blake 2008 Stats: .251/.313/.460
By all logical reasons I should hate Casey Blake.....mainly because he made the 11 hour car ride back from San Francisco this summer unbearable. Yet I don't. Why you may ask? Well he strikes me as one of those guys who is good at getting out of the way of other more talented players. He does not bitch about hitting 8th, he tolerates MIA in the locker room, he does not mind that the L.A. Times seems to think that Iowa is like watching Deliverance. I feel he's a valuable player for our team, especially hitting here. I won't be surprised when he continues to regress and ends up on the bench in 2010, but so long as Carlos Santana doesn't turn out to be the next Ivan Rodriguez, I'm cool. So he hit 8th, and will deal with the godawful junk pitcher will throw him because Chad Billingsley is not a good hitter.
In sum:
SS Furcal
C Martin
LF Manny
RF Ethier
CF Kemp
1B Loney
2B Hudson
3B Blake
Pitcher
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